Daily Cryptocurrency Market Report – November 4
Author kim
Key Takeaways
① Price trend: Binance released its investigation report on the $6.3 billion hacking incident, while it was Election Day for the U.S. midterm elections. BTC dipped to $76,300 intraday before recovering to $77,832.27 (+1.20%); XRP led the six major cryptocurrencies with a gain of 2.20%, while ZEC rose nearly 7% in a single day.
② Fund flows: Spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of $52.6 million on 11/03 (preliminary figure), marking the third consecutive day of outflows (−$399 million the previous day), with cumulative net outflows of $940 million over the past five trading days; spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of $140 million on 11/02, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of outflows.
③ Today: U.S. October ADP employment data, the ISM Services PMI, the Treasury Department’s quarterly refunding statement, and the vote-counting results of the midterm elections; the Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 to 34 but remained in the “Fear” zone.
Market Overview
Fear & Greed Index: 34 (Fear)
· BTC spot ETF net outflow on 11/03: -$52.6 million
· ETH spot ETF net outflow on 11/02: -$140 million
The main development over the past 24 hours was the release of the investigation findings into the Binance hacking incident. According to The Block, Binance released an incident report on 11/03 stating that the attackers infiltrated its wallet operations system over a period of several months through fake job interviews and internal AI tools, stealing more than $6.3 billion in assets. Approximately $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted so far, and 98% of the affected assets have been replenished. The FBI attributed the case to North Korean hackers. Starting at 04:00 UTC on 11/03, Binance began restoring withdrawals on chains including BSC, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP in batches, and will commission an independent cybersecurity review.
On the price front, BTC briefly fell 2.19% to $76,455.56 during the European morning session on 11/03, while Decrypt’s market data section showed an intraday low of approximately $76,303. According to KuCoin Flash citing CoinGlass data, total liquidations across the crypto market over 12 hours amounted to approximately $298 million, including $271 million in long positions. The market stabilized after the U.S. stock market opened. As of 23:24 UTC, BTC had recovered to $77,832.27, while ETH, SOL, and DOGE rebounded by 1%–2% in tandem.
Against the macro backdrop, the U.S. midterm elections took place on 11/03. Citing Reuters data, Cointelegraph reported that the crypto industry spent approximately $176 million across more than 100 races in this election cycle. Kalshi data showed that Democrats were more likely to win control of both chambers of Congress. The Reserve Bank of Australia also raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on the same day, according to RBA Rate Watch. According to Bitcoin Magazine, Polymarket priced in approximately a 71% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Brent crude remained near $106, while expectations for persistently tight monetary policy continued to weigh on risk assets.
In terms of fund flows and sentiment, BTC spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days. On 11/02, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day outflow of $405 million, its largest since June 26. ETH spot ETFs recorded outflows for the sixth consecutive trading day. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 26 to 34, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment, though caution still prevailed.
Next, two points to watch: first, the midterm election vote-counting results. If control of Congress changes hands, the legislative timeline for crypto bills such as the CLARITY Act may be reset, potentially amplifying short-term volatility. Second, today’s ISM Services PMI (expected: 54.7; previous: 54.9) and Friday’s (11/06) October nonfarm payrolls report. Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce expectations of a December rate hike.
Top 10 tokens by market capitalization
Ranking and data source: CoinPaprika (excluding staking/wrapped derivative tokens such as stETH, wstETH, WBTC, and WBETH). The top 10 list is consistent with CoinMarketCap; data as of 2026-11-03 23:24 UTC. Rankings may have changed amid sharp volatility.
Analyst views
- Historical midterm election pattern may be broken: Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, believes that historical trends are favorable for BTC over a 12-month horizon, but volatility should be expected to intensify in the short term. CoinDesk notes that BTC is currently about 5.2% above its 200-day moving average (approximately $73,169), whereas it was below that moving average on the midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022. The risk is that this year’s market is being driven primarily by the Binance incident and rate-hike expectations, limiting the relevance of historical patterns.
- BTC may continue to underperform gold: Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, points out that the BTC/gold ratio is approximately 20 ounces. Rather than recovering to 25, he believes the greater risk is a decline toward 15, and warns that a correction may occur after the midterm elections. The risk is that this view is based on long-term patterns between the ratio and volatility, which are difficult to map precisely onto short-term price movements.
- A change in congressional control could reset the legislative timeline: Christian Davies, head of innovation and digital capital at Relm Insurance, said that a change in control of Congress would very likely reset the timeline for the CLARITY Act. The risk is that the election results and subsequent legislative process remain highly uncertain.
The views above are from third parties and do not represent Hotcoin’s position.
News brief
- Binance releases report on hacking incident: Attackers infiltrated the devices of wallet operations personnel in phases beginning in June via fake recruitment processes, tampered developer-tool installations, and internal AI tools, stealing more than $6.3 billion. Binance said approximately $2.85 billion had been frozen or intercepted and that 98% of affected assets had been replenished. Co-CEO Richard Teng called it a “months-long attack campaign.” After the investigation’s conclusions were clarified, market concerns about Binance’s solvency eased somewhat, but the exchange’s internal security management remains a focus.
- U.S. midterm elections: Voting will take place on 11/03, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election; the CLARITY Act previously failed a Senate procedural vote in September by a vote of 49 to 50. According to Bitcoin Magazine, TD Cowen analysts believe a Democratic sweep of both chambers is the most likely—and the least favorable to the industry—scenario, and that the election results will affect expectations for crypto legislation.
- BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net outflows of $405 million on 11/02, its largest single-day outflow since June, bringing total outflows from spot BTC ETFs to more than $1.04 billion over two days. Continued institutional withdrawals are putting pressure on prices in the short term.
- The Tether CEO said the company holds approximately 150,000 BTC, about 50,000 more than indicated in its reserve reports. If true, Tether would become one of the largest BTC holders, but concerns over the transparency of its reserves have also resurfaced.
- The U.S. CFTC approved the trading of U.S. stocks through perpetual contracts, a form commonly used in crypto markets. The convergence of traditional-asset derivatives with crypto-style products could accelerate competition between crypto exchanges and traditional finance.
Today’s Focus
The following covers events on 11/04 (Wednesday) and 11/05 (Thursday); “—” indicates that no verified expectation or prior reading was found. No major data releases are scheduled in China over the two days (the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress is meeting from 11/02–11/06). Released yesterday: U.S. September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, above the revised previous reading of 7.19 million (there was no unified market consensus; third-party estimates were approximately 7.10–7.16 million); the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, in line with most market expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the BTC price today?
BTC is quoted at $77,832.27 (24-hour change: +1.20%).
Why did Bitcoin rebound today?
Binance released an incident investigation report and said it had replenished 98% of the affected assets and was restoring withdrawals in batches, easing some of the panic. BTC had previously fallen to around $76,300 amid long liquidations, then stabilized and rebounded during U.S. trading hours.
What is the current market sentiment?
The Fear and Greed Index stands at 34/100 (Fear), up 8 points from 26 (Fear) the previous day.
How are spot BTC ETF flows looking?
Preliminary data for 11/03 showed net outflows of $52.6 million, marking a third consecutive day of outflows; on 11/02, net outflows were $399 million, bringing cumulative net outflows over the past five trading days to $940 million.
Risk Disclaimer: This article is compiled for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice; digital-asset prices are highly volatile, so please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.
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